Time the market

You get 100,000 kr and a secret period of two to five years from the stock market's real history. The trading days tick by in seconds. Get in and out whenever you like, and see if you beat the person who simply bought and waited.

  • A random stretch of real history. You are not told which years.
  • The news arrives as it happens, just as vague as it felt at the time.
  • Afterwards you see the period, every decision and what waiting would have given.
Which market?
How long do you want to play?

Space in / out · P pause

The high-score list

The whole list

Ranked by how much more than the market a game made. Press the button at least 5 times to get on it.

  1. 1
    Ekorre

    2011 to 2013 · Stockholm · 115 trades

    +144 052 kryou +161,5 %, the market +17,5 %
  2. 2
    Patrik

    2013 to 2018 · Stockholm · 143 trades

    +90 618 kryou +108,3 %, the market +17,7 %
  3. 3
    Ekorre

    2007 to 2012 · Both · 7 trades

    +24 713 kryou +12,2 %, the market −12,5 %
  4. 4
    Ekorre

    2015 to 2018 · Stockholm · 5 trades

    +14 528 kryou +11,3 %, the market −3,2 %
  5. 5
    Ekorre

    1997 to 2000 · Both · 47 trades

    +3 024 kryou +75,2 %, the market +72,1 %
  6. 6
    Ekorre

    2021 to 2023 · Both · 13 trades

    +937 kryou +14,5 %, the market +13,6 %

Why is it so hard to time the market?

You have to be right twice

Getting out before a fall is only half of it. You also have to get back in before the recovery, and it usually starts while the news is still bad.

A few days make the difference

A large share of the market's return comes on a handful of days, and they often come right after the worst ones. Miss them and much of the return goes with them.

The news comes after the prices

By the time something is in the papers, the prices have already moved. The experts' forecasts are no better than a coin toss, which the game shows you too.

Rather let time do the work? See what compound interest does →

Questions about the game

Is it real stock market data?

Yes. The game uses the daily closing prices of OMX Stockholm 30 since 1995 and the S&P 500 since 1960. Each game picks a random period of two to five years from that history, and the news in the feed really happened on the days it appears.

Why don't I get to know which years I'm playing?

Because in real life nobody knows what comes next. If you knew it was 2008 you would know a crash and a recovery were coming. The news is deliberately vague for the same reason; the period is revealed when the game is over.

What does buy and hold mean?

Putting all the money in on the first day and leaving it there until the end, whatever happens. It is what the game compares you with, because it is what an index fund saver does.

Why are dividends not included?

The game uses price indices, which leave dividends out. That makes both you and buy and hold look a little worse than reality, but in the same way, so the comparison is fair. With dividends, staying in the market would have paid even better.

Is it possible to time the market?

Sometimes, in a single period, but it is very hard to do again and again. You have to be right twice, about when to get out and when to get back in, and the best days often come right after the worst, when it feels most frightening to be in the market.

Is anything saved?

No. The result lives only in its link, which holds the period and the days you traded on. Share it, and whoever opens it sees the same result.